“Analyst Warns: One-Party Rule May Pave the Way for Military Ascendancy”
A political commentator, Aminu Rabiu, has cautioned that Nigeria may be veering towards a one-party dominant framework, a scenario he asserts could undermine democracy and potentially set the stage for a military coup. Rabiu conveyed this in an exclusive discussion with NAIJATAB.
He stated that although Nigeria is legally a multi-party nation, the recent mass migrations from opposition groups to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) indicate an escalating supremacy that is unparalleled in the nation’s political narrative.
“Considering the existing realities and the widespread defections we are witnessing, it is clear that the country is heading towards one-party supremacy under the APC,” he remarked.
He drew a parallel between the current state and 1993 during the tenure of former military leader, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, who established a two-party framework featuring the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Convention (NRC).
“Even in military governance, two parties coexisted. So why not in a democratic setting?” he inquired.
Rabiu cautioned that this trend represents significant dangers to democratic governance, observing that a weakened opposition would lessen checks and balances.
“Should it evolve into a one-party system, checks and balances will vanish. Opposition groups play a vital role in ensuring transparency and holding the ruling party accountable,” he asserted.
He elucidated that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has remained the major opposition since losing power in 2015 when former President Muhammadu Buhari triumphed over Goodluck Jonathan, has now been compromised by internal turmoil, leadership disputes, and legal challenges.
According to him, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is surfacing as a new opposition avenue, with politicians from various parties uniting to contest the ruling party.
Rabiu, nevertheless, accused state institutions of being employed to target opposition personalities.
“It is evident that the government is utilizing legal systems to persecute opposition figures,” he stated.
He mentioned the instances of Nasir El-Rufai and Abubakar Malami, asserting they are undergoing repercussions tied to their opposition views.
As per him, such developments could result in an unrestrained executive branch of government.
“When the executive is unregulated, there is a possibility that corruption will rise, resulting in a lack of accountable democracy,” he expressed.
The analyst further indicated that the situation could foster conditions akin to those prompting previous military engagements in Nigeria.
He referenced the First Republic, where the supremacy of the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) and efforts to diminish opposition parties played a significant role in the January 1966 military coup.
He also highlighted the Second Republic, when the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) reportedly wielded state authority against opposition groups such as the PRP, GNPP, and UPN, preceding the 1983 military takeover.
“Such a political climate can cultivate a conducive environment for military interference,” he stated.
Rabiu observed that the escalating authority of the ruling party is apparent in the number of governors aligning with it.
“It is unprecedented that approximately 30 or 31 out of 36 governors are now part of the ruling party. From January until now, numerous governors have defected,” he commented.
He also warned that this trend could yield voter disinterest in upcoming elections.
“People may begin to believe that, regardless of whether they vote, the ruling party will still prevail. This could diminish participation in the 2027 elections,” he cautioned.
Rabiu emphasized that a fragile opposition would further erode accountability and transparency in governance.
He advocated for immediate measures, including civic education, enhanced engagement by civil society organizations, and intervention from the international community.
