“Unpacking the Surge: Why Military Rule is Gaining Favor in West Africa”
Specialists have cautioned that poor governance and development dilemmas stemming from years of policy errors, fragile democratic practices, and the escalating impact of misinformation could prompt the populace to explore alternatives to democracy in West Africa.
The specialists issued their caution during the introduction of the Democratic ‘Strategic Plan” 2026-2031 for West African countries by the Centre for Democracy and Development, (CDD West Africa).
In his keynote address, a prominent political economist, Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, linked Nigeria’s halted development path to the neglect of state-driven economic strategies and a transition toward market-oriented policies that did not achieve inclusive progress.
He recounted that Nigeria’s initial post-independence development initiatives, starting with the 1962–1968 national development scheme under the Tafawa Balewa administration, emphasized infrastructure and industrial growth.
As per his perspective, the nation’s aspiration to create a robust industrial sector, including the Ajaokuta Steel Complex, was thwarted by external opposition and inconsistent policies.
“Over 90 percent of that project was accomplished, yet it was halted. That signifies nearly 50 years of missed industrial advancement,” Ibrahim stated.
He contended that Nigeria’s ongoing poverty crisis arises from its failure to maintain people-centered growth, cautioning that without intentional government intervention, economic disparity and instability will continue to escalate.
“Currently, Nigeria has a greater proportion of impoverished individuals than it did 20, 30, or even 50 years ago,” he emphasized, noting that the constitutional obligation for state-led economic guidance has been largely overlooked.
He remarked, “I believe if we truly wish for democracy to advance, to mature and flourish in Nigeria, it can only occur if we do not rely solely on the democrats, but rather create conditions in which every citizen can strive to uphold democracy in our nations, in our societies.”
“The notion of placing the burden of sustaining democracy on these self-styled democrats has never been effective. These Democrats have the potential to betray their stated mission, while the people hold a vested interest in democracy.”
He asserted that the inability of the nation to cultivate progressive leadership is primarily due to democracy being entrusted to the self-styled democrats.
“I believe if we truly want democracy to progress, to deepen and thrive in Nigeria, it can only be on the premise that we do not rely on the Democrats, but that we foster conditions where every citizen can fight, can strive to maintain democracy in our nations, in our societies.”
“The idea of placing the onus of sustaining democracy on these so-called democrats has never yielded results. Because these Democrats can easily betray their proclaimed mission, while the populace has a stake in democracy.”
Addressing the media, CDD West Africa Director Dr. Dauda Garuba highlighted the escalating role of misinformation in undermining democratic frameworks and legitimizing military takeovers in nations such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
“In recent years, we have observed how misinformation and disinformation, frequently amplified through social media and AI-generated content, are being utilized to foster military populism,” Garuba noted.
He elaborated that viral narratives depicting military regimes as transformative have gained popularity online, despite evidence contradicting such claims.
“Numerous manipulated videos and posts, particularly on platforms like TikTok, are fabricating a false narrative that these countries have rapidly become prosperous. But much of that is simply inaccurate,” he added.
Garuba further indicated that while social media has democratized the sharing of information through citizen journalism, it has also eroded traditional gatekeeping, allowing the swift dissemination of false and misleading information.
Regarding democracy in Nigeria, he argued that the issue lies less in democratic ideals and more in how political actors manipulate the system.
“A system is only as effective as the individuals who manage it. What we witness in Nigeria is the exploitation of democratic structures, primarily driven by the competition for access to state resources,” he stated.
Additionally, policy expert Egghead Odewole contested the widely accepted idea of the “dividends of democracy,” claiming that infrastructure alone does not equate to democratic success.
“Democracy should ensure fundamental rights, freedom of expression, security, and participation in governance. These are the genuine dividends, and many Nigerians would argue that these are still inadequate,” he remarked.
Odewole warned that declining security and restricted citizen involvement between election cycles have diminished democratic accountability, fostering circumstances where some communities in the Sahel now view military governance as a plausible alternative.
He stressed that democracy must extend beyond periodic elections, advocating for ongoing citizen engagement and institutional reforms that promote inclusivity and responsiveness.
The event also included a panel discussion themed “Democracy Failing or the People Failing?”, where participants explored the intricate relationship between leadership failures, citizen duties, and systemic vulnerabilities.
