In 2023, the requirement for OPEC-13 crude oil is expected to hit 29.3 million barrels per day (mb/d).
As per the monthly oil market report (MOMR) published by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday, November 14.
The document states that the demand for OPEC-13 crude oil in 2023 will be 29.3 mb/d, marking an increase of approximately 0.7 mb/d compared to 2022, yet it has been adjusted downward from the prior forecast by 0.2 mb/d. The OPEC-13 crude demand for 2022 is lowered from the last MOMR by 0.1 mb/d to 28.6 mb/d, which is about 0.5 mb/d more than in 2021.
The report indicates that Nigeria and Iraq experienced the largest rises in OPEC-13 crude oil production in October 2022, while Saudi Arabia and Angola reported declines.
Moreover, the report highlighted that in October 2022, the OPEC-13 crude oil production dipped by 0.21%. The organization recorded an average monthly output of 29.49 million barrels per day (mb/d) for October 2022 and 29.70 mb/d for September 2022, both representing a drop of 210 thousand barrels per day from the previous month.
OPEC-13 crude production averaged 28.4 mb/d in Q1/2022, which is 0.3 mb/d less than the demand, according to the MOMR. OPEC produced an average of 28.6 mb/d of crude oil in Q2 2022, which is 0.2 mb/d above the needed amount. In Q3 2022, OPEC averaged 29.5 mb/d of crude oil production, exceeding the necessity by 1.1 mb/d.
Global oil demand
Per the MOMR, worldwide oil demand is projected to hit 101.8 mb/d in 2023. The report states that “anticipated geopolitical enhancements and the control of COVID-19 in China are fostering the expansion of global oil demand in 2023, which has been adjusted down by roughly 0.1 mb/d to average 101.8 mb/d with an increase of 2.2 mb/d.
Factors influencing global oil demand and supply
The global economy has entered a stage characterized by significant uncertainty and escalating challenges, including elevated inflation, monetary tightening from primary central banks, substantial sovereign debt levels, constricting labor markets, and ongoing limitations in supply chains. These signs are reflected in the MOMR. A global deceleration is expected as a result of these in 4Q/2022, and it is probable that this slowdown will continue into H1/2023. OPEC forecasts a 2.5% rise in global growth for 2023.
As a note, despite a 0.21 percent decline in OPEC’s crude output for October 2022, Nigerian crude production levels increased to over a million barrels per day (mb/d).
According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the daily output for October 2022 was 1.01 mb/d, an increase from 972K bpd in August and 937K bpd in September.
Based on direct communication, OPEC assesses Nigeria’s crude oil production for October 2022 to be 1.01 mb/d. Conversely, OPEC estimates Nigeria’s crude oil production at 1.05 mb/d according to secondary sources.
The OPEC report mentioned that Nigeria’s economic forecast has been affected by the catastrophic rains and floods impacting 31 of Nigeria’s 36 states, resulting in significant loss of land, lives, and livelihoods, despite achieving over a million barrels per day of crude production in October 2022.
OPEC-13 countries
Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Venezuela constitute the members of the OPEC-13.
