Nigeria, 5 other countries account for 71.1 mtpa LNG liquefaction capacity in Africa – OPEC
Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Egypt, and Equatorial Guinea constitute the bulk of the continent’s 71.1 million tonnes annually (mtpa) capacity for liquefying natural gas (LNG).
This assertion is supported by the World Oil Outlook (WOO), published by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in November 2022.
As of Q3/2022, the six facilities operated by Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) Limited were projected to have a liquefaction capability of 22 mtpa.
The WOO further projected that by 2050, Africa’s total operational liquefaction capacity would reach 144.8 mtpa, more than double its existing export ability. Additionally, LNG exports are forecasted to rise to around 117 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2050, positioning Africa as a vital LNG center in the long term.
The African Development Bank (AfDB) Group advocated for the utilization of natural gas as a transitional energy source during the recently held COP 27 conference in Egypt, aiming to hasten the industrial advancement of African economies while addressing issues related to energy access, job creation, and revenue generation.
Importance of natural gas for Africa
Particularly for sub-Saharan Africa, the WOO emphasizes natural gas as the continent’s most significant opportunity as a sustainable energy provision strategy to alleviate energy deprivation and enhance living standards. The Outlook also underlines how natural gas, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, can assist in bridging the continent’s substantial power deficit. An increased supply of gas will also promote its use in industries that depend on it, such as petrochemicals, methanol, and fertilizers, which will enhance agricultural efficiency and food security.
Growth in demand across the continent
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) predicts that sub-Saharan Africa will be responsible for the majority of the rise in natural gas demand within Africa, which is expected to escalate from approximately 155 bcm in 2020 to nearly 400 bcm by 2050. Concurrently, it is anticipated that the electrical output of the continent will grow, increasing from 850 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2020 to 3,130 TWh by 2050. By 2050, natural gas is projected to contribute a consistent 38–39% to the electricity generation mix, accounting for 38% of the overall increase in electricity supply.
As of 2020, Africa exported around 82 bcm of natural gas to different regions. Approximately 41 million tonnes (57 bcm), or close to 70% of this quantity, were shipped as LNG, mainly from GECF countries like Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, and Egypt, with Nigeria at the forefront.
The GECF estimates that over $1.6 trillion in investments in the upstream sector will be essential in Africa to transform natural gas reserves into active supply. To advance and integrate its energy resources, including natural gas, and to catalyze industrial transformation across the continent, the AfDB encourages innovative technologies, management frameworks, and financing strategies.
From 2021 to 2045, global demand for natural gas is anticipated to sharply rise by 19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), potentially reaching 85 mboe/d by the conclusion of 2050.
Natural gas possesses long-term potential due to sufficient gas resources and relatively low CO2 emissions. Consequently, numerous nations aim to enhance the portion of natural gas in their energy portfolio.
The contribution of natural gas to the energy mix is set to increase from 23% in 2021 to nearly 24.5% by 2045. After 2030, natural gas will surpass coal, becoming the second-largest fuel source in the energy mix.
